Looking forward: GLP-1s and restaurants
Dan Frommer from The New Consumer talks portions, preferences, and opportunity to serve a growing cohort of diners.
Expedite’s peeking into the (near) future this month with a four-week series about hot topics changing the business of hospitality. Today: an interview with Dan Frommer, founder and editor of The New Consumer about some interesting GLP-1 data inside his latest Consumer Trends report. The news is better for restaurants than I expected.
The next big shift in restaurants might be more about menus and less about technology. According to survey data from the latest Consumer Trends report from The New Consumer and Coefficient Capital, two-thirds of American adults are interested in losing weight. Increasingly, these adults are turning to a new class of medication that curbs appetite and aids rapid weight loss.
No one really knows how many Americans take or have taken GLP-1 medications, like Ozempic, for weight loss. I’ve seen estimates that range from 12 percent to 18 percent to an impressive 1 in 3 readers who responded to a survey from popular business newsletter Feed Me in July. These numbers don’t include the GLP-1 curious set or those that will soon take advantage of significantly lower costs to access the meds; experts expect more of us will get on board. Market research firm Circana estimates that close to a quarter of US households include at least one GLP-1 user today.
These popular medications, also used to treat diabetes, change appetites and eating behavior. They make people less hungry by design, so they eat less. Users are encouraged to up protein intake to prevent muscle loss while losing fat while limiting sugar and carbs and alcohol. Just-released dietary guidelines from the federal government mirror this advice.
Large restaurant chains are leaning in. The Olive Garden successfully tested and will soon roll out a nationwide “lighter portions” menu featuring a handful of its most popular dishes, served in smaller sizes. Shake Shack’s “good fit” menu calls out GLP-1 friendly items like lettuce-wrapped burgers with 23 grams of protein. Chipotle’s on the protein train, too; its aptly named “high protein menu” highlights items with 15 to 81(!!) grams of protein. (If you want to go that big, your order is a “double high protein bowl.”)
The survey data inside The New Consumer’s latest report, which polled over 3,000 people, including 428 GLP-1 users, shows encouraging news for all restaurants, not just those looking to placate shareholders and adjust to a new American diet: The millions of people using this new class of medication still have an appetite for dining.
GLP-1 users are still spending money on food — in some cases, even more than they were before. More users said they were “trading up” at restaurants than those who said they’re spending less. And since they’re eating less, most GLP-1 users surveyed say they can afford higher-quality food and they want to enjoy the meals they eat more. Half said the taste of food matters more now than it did before.
I caught up with Dan before the holidays and he shared more about the report’s restaurant and GLP-1 findings, including a few stats that didn’t make it into this year’s long — and thorough — slide deck.
Our conversation follows below for paid subscribers. It has been lightly edited for length and clarity.
Expedite: I was interested — and honestly a little surprised — to read all of the GLP-1 info you included in this year’s report. High-level, what should restaurants know?
Dan Frommer, The New Consumer: “At the highest level, what’s interesting to me is that there were a lot of people who were extremely doom and gloom about GLP-1s as if they were going to cause some sort of collapse in the food industry. There’s no official number on how many people are taking these, so we have to rely on different data points from different places. Some of that is survey data, and then there’s also actual prescription data, but those don’t line up perfectly. The consensus between all of them is that a lot of people are taking these medications now — possibly 15 to 20 percent of this country, which seems very high — but that’s tens of millions of people and there hasn’t been any collapse. Some companies are doing better than they were a couple years ago, some companies are doing worse, but it’s not like the entire industry is down 20 percent.”